Rumor Reality

A quirky presentation today that leaves us with a messy mix of products:  No overhaul for the 17″ MBP.  A 24″ LED display - but what about other sizes?   Has Ives been to Toastmasters?  The white plastic  Macbook lives on.   Why so many speakers in such a short presentation?  And why all the brick buzz if it’s in the Air?  Where’s the mystery product alluded to during the last earnings call?

Murphy’s thoughts on the following:

AAPL
Rumors
Display Port
Brick
Macbook Pro
Macbook
New 24″ Display
Steve
Conclusion

AAPL
The reaction of Wall Street to today’s event was bound to be something of a non-event.  Obviously, huge market forces are at work this week, and it’s difficult to separate the effects of today’s announcments from all the other noise.  That said, the share price didn’t drop as much as I would have expected, given that nothing monumental was announced outside of the rumors. The lack of a $899 notebook could have been an anchor on AAPL today, but it wasn’t.

The stock is in for a drop regardless of what happened today.  Short of a new line of Apple-branded flying cars and a 7-inch tablet nothing announced today was going to move the shares north.  Maybe that $899 notebook could have nudged it up.  Maybe.

Why is AAPL in for a drop?  It’s hard to see Apple predicting a holiday quarter that matches up with Wall Street’s lofty expectations.  As we’ve seen in the past, it doesn’t matter if Apple beats on the current quarter.  Without highly optimistic forward looking guidance AAPL will be adjusted downward.

Rumors
There were complaints from contributors on various mainstream forums, like Engadget and Fortune this morning, as readers realized there weren’t going to be any surprises today.  “There’s nothing to look forward to,” posters said.  We’re starting to see a pattern here, remarkably accurate predictions based on leaks: manuals,  photos, and placeholders in retailer inventory systems.  If this keeps up, it’ll be hard for Steve to awe the audience with “one more thing.”

We saw the phatty iPod before it was released.  Last month’s nano was leaked all over the place.  And today’s products were all pre-announced to a remarkable extent before Steve took the stage.

Remember the days leading up to the initial iPhone announcement?  There were mockups of every kind making the rounds.  Most of them were wrong.  Those were the good old days.

Display Port
Did you notice Steve mentioned a couple times that Display Port is going into “all our new products” and “everything we make” ?  Could that include iPods?  Well, obviously we can’t take it too literally.  It won’t be in an iPod Shuffle for example.  But Steve’s choice of words seemed a little curious.  He didn’t say every computer.  Maybe the tablet we’re getting in January will have a Display Port?

Brick
Again, congrats to the rumor mongers.  You pretty much had this one nailed, and I have to say I was skeptical along the way.

Ives wasn’t exactly a compelling speaker.  But most hardcore Apple fans are familiar with his accomplishments.  If he thinks something is important fans will listen.  Clearly Steve thinks the case is a monumental accomplishment, but why didn’t we hear about it when the Air was launched?

There were definitely problems with the old case.  My Macbook Pro was never the same after Apple opened it.  It took some voodoo to reassemble in a way that the trackpad button wasn’t obstructed.  It wasn’t easy to disassemble either.  After a fan repair and multiple attempts by Apple to get the mouse button right they gave me a new Macbook Pro.

If the new case is more serviceable it’s probably worth the hype we’ve heard.

Macbook Pro
The big curiosity is the trackpad.  No mouse button!  That’s definitely interesting and I’m looking forward to trying one out asap.   I think people who love computers might love this.  People who struggled with trackpads are really going to miss the button.

The glass display alienates a lot of users.   The question is how loud will the outcry be and will Apple listen?  I predict a matte finish being available sometime in January.

Losing the mechanical latch?  Fantastic.

Macbook
The Macbook is a pretty compelling piece of hardware at this point.  I expect impressive sales for the rest of the year.  Students will eat it up.

We’ve got a Macbook Pro and a Macbook in the house.  The Macbook is easier to grab when your’e lying on the sofa.  It’s great for a trip to the coffee shop.  It’s not so great for apps that need screen real estate or use multiple apps side by side.

Still, I’ve been using the Macbook more and more.  I don’t like the plastic.  It’s a little flimsy.  It’s cracked in one place.  And the keyboard isn’t backlit.  Fixing those issues is a slamdunk for Apple.

A lot of people are itching for something smaller, like the old 12-inch Powerbook.  Clearly it’s not coming.  Because that need will be filled with the Mac Touch in January.  Right?!

24″ Inch Display
That was a long wait.  What took so long?  Can I use my notebook with it and have the lid closed?  Will the notebook overheat?

Steve
Murphy thought he looked healthy.  But he’s working so hard to give other people stage time that the presentations are a little jerky.  Steve’s obsession with these presentations is well documented, it’s weird to see them get so choppy.  And for anyone who thought Ives would be the new keynote man I think the search is back on as of today.  Genius?  Yes.  Presenter?  No.

It looks like Steve is holding open tryouts for the keynote job, but they’re going to have to dig a little deeper.  The guys today don’t have it.   Talk about big shoes to fill:  Who else has the history that Steve has with Apple?  Nobody.  That history carries a lot of clout when Jobs takes the stage.  It’s the same with Gates.  Being there from day 1 means something.

Steve did look better than he did last month, and much better than he did at the 3G launch.  But with so many people sharing the load on an easy presentation you have to assume he’s a little worn out.  Or something.   Murphy  wishes him well.

Conclusion
If you were looking for the blockbuster announcement you were at the wrong event.  If there is one, we’ll know about it some time in December, when the Macworld rumors start leaking.  Personally, Murphy hopes Apple has something big, and that they manage to keep it under wraps until the keynote.  It’s more fun that way.

Free Express Shipping With Amazon | Permalink