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This isn’t another post about whether or not Apple should have left Firewire on the new Macbooks. If that’s what you’re looking for you’ll find about 600 comments on this AppleInsider post.
Instead, let’s look at how the lack of Firewire highlights a gap in Apple’s notebook lineup. The gap, introduced when Apple went to Intel, could have been closed last week. It wasn’t.
For some reason, Apple thinks “pro” notebook customers are defined by the physical dimensions of their machine. Years ago this wasn’t the case - when you could buy a 12″ Powerbook. Since the switch to Intel there isn’t a small form-factor Pro machine. Just the Macbook.
When the Macbook went aluminum its features started to merge with the Macbook Pro. Macbook got the nice case and a backlit keyboard (on the high end model). The Macbook Pro got the magnetic latch. The differences in the machines became more about the guts - and less about aesthetics. Seemed like the perfect opportunity to put Pro guts in a small machine.
And make no mistake, small is in. Look at netbook sales. Still, Apple decided against introducing anything smaller than the Macbook. Could it be they’re holding something back for Macworld? Five of the top ten laptops at Amazon are Apple machines. Along with a few netbooks.
Consumer video cameras requiring a Firewire port? Yes Steve, they exist in droves, not matter what you decided about the Macbook. Pro cameras and audio equipment - it’s out there too. And people that tote that stuff around value space in their work area, in their hardcases, in their bags. Maybe Firewire was slated to go, but it seems a little premature.
Apple should consider using a spec other than display size for determining whether or not a machine is pro caliber.
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A quirky presentation today that leaves us with a messy mix of products: No overhaul for the 17″ MBP. A 24″ LED display - but what about other sizes? Has Ives been to Toastmasters? The white plastic Macbook lives on. Why so many speakers in such a short presentation? And why all the brick buzz if it’s in the Air? Where’s the mystery product alluded to during the last earnings call?
Murphy’s thoughts on the following:
AAPL
Rumors
Display Port
Brick
Macbook Pro
Macbook
New 24″ Display
Steve
Conclusion
AAPL
The reaction of Wall Street to today’s event was bound to be something of a non-event. Obviously, huge market forces are at work this week, and it’s difficult to separate the effects of today’s announcments from all the other noise. That said, the share price didn’t drop as much as I would have expected, given that nothing monumental was announced outside of the rumors. The lack of a $899 notebook could have been an anchor on AAPL today, but it wasn’t.
The stock is in for a drop regardless of what happened today. Short of a new line of Apple-branded flying cars and a 7-inch tablet nothing announced today was going to move the shares north. Maybe that $899 notebook could have nudged it up. Maybe.
Why is AAPL in for a drop? It’s hard to see Apple predicting a holiday quarter that matches up with Wall Street’s lofty expectations. As we’ve seen in the past, it doesn’t matter if Apple beats on the current quarter. Without highly optimistic forward looking guidance AAPL will be adjusted downward.
Rumors
There were complaints from contributors on various mainstream forums, like Engadget and Fortune this morning, as readers realized there weren’t going to be any surprises today. “There’s nothing to look forward to,” posters said. We’re starting to see a pattern here, remarkably accurate predictions based on leaks: manuals, photos, and placeholders in retailer inventory systems. If this keeps up, it’ll be hard for Steve to awe the audience with “one more thing.”
We saw the phatty iPod before it was released. Last month’s nano was leaked all over the place. And today’s products were all pre-announced to a remarkable extent before Steve took the stage.
Remember the days leading up to the initial iPhone announcement? There were mockups of every kind making the rounds. Most of them were wrong. Those were the good old days.
Display Port
Did you notice Steve mentioned a couple times that Display Port is going into “all our new products” and “everything we make” ? Could that include iPods? Well, obviously we can’t take it too literally. It won’t be in an iPod Shuffle for example. But Steve’s choice of words seemed a little curious. He didn’t say every computer. Maybe the tablet we’re getting in January will have a Display Port?
Brick
Again, congrats to the rumor mongers. You pretty much had this one nailed, and I have to say I was skeptical along the way.
Ives wasn’t exactly a compelling speaker. But most hardcore Apple fans are familiar with his accomplishments. If he thinks something is important fans will listen. Clearly Steve thinks the case is a monumental accomplishment, but why didn’t we hear about it when the Air was launched?
There were definitely problems with the old case. My Macbook Pro was never the same after Apple opened it. It took some voodoo to reassemble in a way that the trackpad button wasn’t obstructed. It wasn’t easy to disassemble either. After a fan repair and multiple attempts by Apple to get the mouse button right they gave me a new Macbook Pro.
If the new case is more serviceable it’s probably worth the hype we’ve heard.
Macbook Pro
The big curiosity is the trackpad. No mouse button! That’s definitely interesting and I’m looking forward to trying one out asap. I think people who love computers might love this. People who struggled with trackpads are really going to miss the button.
The glass display alienates a lot of users. The question is how loud will the outcry be and will Apple listen? I predict a matte finish being available sometime in January.
Losing the mechanical latch? Fantastic.
Macbook
The Macbook is a pretty compelling piece of hardware at this point. I expect impressive sales for the rest of the year. Students will eat it up.
We’ve got a Macbook Pro and a Macbook in the house. The Macbook is easier to grab when your’e lying on the sofa. It’s great for a trip to the coffee shop. It’s not so great for apps that need screen real estate or use multiple apps side by side.
Still, I’ve been using the Macbook more and more. I don’t like the plastic. It’s a little flimsy. It’s cracked in one place. And the keyboard isn’t backlit. Fixing those issues is a slamdunk for Apple.
A lot of people are itching for something smaller, like the old 12-inch Powerbook. Clearly it’s not coming. Because that need will be filled with the Mac Touch in January. Right?!
24″ Inch Display
That was a long wait. What took so long? Can I use my notebook with it and have the lid closed? Will the notebook overheat?
Steve
Murphy thought he looked healthy. But he’s working so hard to give other people stage time that the presentations are a little jerky. Steve’s obsession with these presentations is well documented, it’s weird to see them get so choppy. And for anyone who thought Ives would be the new keynote man I think the search is back on as of today. Genius? Yes. Presenter? No.
It looks like Steve is holding open tryouts for the keynote job, but they’re going to have to dig a little deeper. The guys today don’t have it. Talk about big shoes to fill: Who else has the history that Steve has with Apple? Nobody. That history carries a lot of clout when Jobs takes the stage. It’s the same with Gates. Being there from day 1 means something.
Steve did look better than he did last month, and much better than he did at the 3G launch. But with so many people sharing the load on an easy presentation you have to assume he’s a little worn out. Or something. Murphy wishes him well.
Conclusion
If you were looking for the blockbuster announcement you were at the wrong event. If there is one, we’ll know about it some time in December, when the Macworld rumors start leaking. Personally, Murphy hopes Apple has something big, and that they manage to keep it under wraps until the keynote. It’s more fun that way.
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Does unlimited two-day shipping, free, from Amazon, seem too good to be true? It’s true. Get on board while you can. Amazon doesn’t always offer a free one-month trial for its Prime account.
Here are some reasons to try Prime out:
- It’s free.
- You can get your Christmas shopping done, now.
- Overnight shipping is only $3.99.
- No minimum order amount.
- You can share it with your roommates, even after the trial ends.
Here’s another thing: Murphy ordered a car-top cargo carrier. It would have cost $100 to ship from just about any vendor. It was free with Amazon Prime. Amazon Prime paid for itself with one order.
You might find yourself ordering stuff from Amazon you wouldn’t have before. iPods, Paul Newman’s Dog Food, diapers. How can you go wrong with an entire month of free two-day express shipping?!
What’s the catch? Not everything in the Amazon inventory is eligible, like items offered through other sellers. With the trial you’ll get a good idea for what’s eligible.
The year I got my shopping done before Thanksgiving was the most relaxing December I ever had. Get yours done. Then kick back and have a beer while your friends are scrambling.
If you choose to keep Prime after the free trial it’s $79 for a year.
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We’ve all heard the cries for iTunes to introduce subscription music. Along with the Beatles catalog it’s become a basic ingredient of every pre-event rumor.
Murphy’s not interested in subscription music. Still - companies turning off their DRM-servers doesn’t instill faith in the current model. I’m happy buying music I’ll listen to for the rest of my life. A video that I’ll watch a handful of times? Not so interested. I don’t want to buy it, I don’t want to store it.
Subscription video - that’s another story. Subscription rentals line up perfectly with the strengths of the iTunes model, and could steal customers away from Netflix.
What about the studios - will they play along? They should. Right now they’re letting Netflix send out DVDs that any eleven year old can copy to their iPhone (and their friend’s iPhone) with minimal effort. I’d venture more users would happily rip a DVD than those that would attempt to break iTunes DRM.
It shines a light on Hollywood’s fear and misunderstanding of digital distribution. Only obscure content is available for streaming from Netflix, via the Roku box or a PC. Almost nothing in Murphy’s queue can be viewed immediately. But I can get new releases on DVD, and if I were so inclined I could copy them with Handbrake. Easily.
More on Netflix: They’ve got an all-you-can-eat model that iTunes could easily replicate. Apple could twist it in a few different directions. For example, my biggest problem with Netflix is the US Mail lag. I learned early to make sure I mail a disk back on Thursday so I’ll have something for the weekend. iTunes can dance around the mail. If Apple wants to offer all-you-can-eat their DRM makes it simple: They could require you to delete your current rental before downloading another.
Or they could place a limit on your subscription, one download per day, fifteen per month, whatever they agree on with the studios. If you’ve ever seen the control iTunes exerts over a rental with regard to your computer, iPhone, and Apple TV you’ll know they can do whatever they want to limit your access. There are all kind of creative caps, it just needs to be negotiated.
Comparing an iTunes subscription to Netflix is interesting. No wondering if your letter carrier is bringing a red envelope. No planning in advance. Nothing to send back.
Television shows should be included in the model, something not suited for the current iTunes model. Netflix includes television shows in its subscription service, iTunes should too.
Netflix has already built the model and conditioned customers. Apple already has the required pieces in place: iTMS, Apple TV, iPods and iPhone. iTunes can take a good service and make it better. They need a new deal with the studios, and access to a much larger library. But it’s easily within reach.
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I was looking at my iPod weather forecast and looking forward to some cool days in the sixties next week. And then I looked at my Macbook’s weather widget - which expects temps closer to 80. Who should I trust?
I’ve actually noticed this quite a bit over the last few weeks. My iPod thinks it’s going to be cool. My Macs are all less optimistic. The weather on my iPod comes from Yahoo! Weather, which partners with The Weather Channel, aka weather.com. My Dashboard weather comes from AccuWeather.com.
I’ve got Weather Bug installed on my iPod too. But I’m not in the habit of checking it.
Where do you get your forecast?
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